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Long lines at gas pump unlikely, but Middle East crisis could disrupt oil supplies_我的网站

一 |     WASHINGTON -- Fifty years after the 1973 Arab oil embargo, the current crisis in the Middle East has the potential to disrupt global oil supplies and push prices higher. But don't expect a repeat of the catastrophic price hikes and long lines at the gasoline pump, experts say.The Israel-Hamas war is “definitely not good news” for oil markets already stretched by cutbacks in oil production from Saudi Arabia and Russia and expected stronger demand from China, the head of the International Energy Agency said.Markets will remain volatile, and the conflict could push oil prices higher, "which is definitely bad news for inflation,” Fatih Birol, executive director of the Paris-based IEA, told The Associated Press. Developing countries that import oil and other fuels would be the most affected by higher prices, he said.International benchmark Brent crude traded above $91 a barrel on Thursday, up from $85 per barrel on Oct. 6, the day before Hamas attacked Israel, killing hundreds of civilians. Israel immediately launched airstrikes on Gaza, destroying entire neighborhoods and killing hundreds of Palestinian civilians in the days that have followed.Fluctuations since the attack pushed oil prices as high as $96. The price of oil depends on how much of it is getting used and how much is available. The latter is under threat because of the Hamas-Israel war, even though the Gaza Strip is not home to major crude production.One worry is that the fighting could lead to complications with Iran, home of some of the world’s largest oil reserves. Its crude production has been constrained by international sanctions, but oil is still flowing to China and other countries.“In order to get a sustained move (in prices), we really would need to see a supply disruption,” said Andrew Lipow, president at Lipow Oil Associates, a Houston-based consultant.Any damage to Iranian oil infrastructure from a military strike by Israel could send prices jumping globally. Even without that, a shutdown of the Strait of Hormuz that lies south of Iran could also shake the oil market because so much of the world’s supplies goes through the waterway.Until something like that happens, “the oil market is going to be like everyone else, monitoring the events in the Middle East,” Lipow said.One reason 1970s-style gas lines are unlikely: U.S. oil production is at an all-time high. The U.S. Energy Information Administration, an arm of the Energy Department, reported that American oil production in the first week of October hit 13.2 million barrels per day, passing the previous record set in 2020 by 100,000 barrels. Weekly domestic oil production has doubled from the first week in October 2012 to now.“The energy crisis of 1973 taught us many things, but in my mind, the most critical is that American energy strength is a tremendous source of security, prosperity and freedom around the world,'' said Mike Sommers, president and CEO of the American Petroleum Institute, the U.S. oil industry's top lobbying group.In a speech Wednesday marking the 50th anniversary of the 1973 oil embargo, Sommers said current U.S. production contrasts sharply with “America’s weakened position during the Arab oil embargo.'' He urged U.S. policymakers to heed what he called the lessons of 1973.“We cannot squander our strategic advantage and retreat on energy leadership,'' said Sommers, who has repeatedly criticized President Joe Biden's policies restricting restricting new oil leases as part of Biden's efforts to slow global climate change.“With an unstable world, war in Europe, war in the Middle East, and energy demand outstripping supply, energy security is on the line,'' Sommers said in a speech at the Hudson Institute, a Washington think tank.“American oil and gas are needed now more than ever,'' Sommers said. “Let’s take to heart the lessons we learned from 1973 and avoid sowing the seeds of the next energy crisis.'' For now, the crisis isn’t a repeat of 1973. Arab countries aren’t attacking Israel in unison, and OPEC+ nations have not moved to restrict supplies or boost prices beyond a few extra dollars.There are several wild cards in the energy market. One is the supply of Iranian oil. Eager to avoid a spike in gasoline prices and inflation, the U.S. has quietly tolerated some exports of Iranian oil to destinations such as China instead of going all in on sanctions aimed at Iran’s nuclear program. If Iran, which has warned Israel not to undertake a ground offensive, escalates the Gaza conflict — including a possible attack by Hezbollah militants in Lebanon supported by Iran — that might change the U.S. stance. “If the U.S. were then also to enforce the oil sanctions against Iran more strictly again, the oil market would tighten noticeably,” say commodities analysts at Commerzbank.Lawmakers from both parties have urged Biden to block Iranian oil sales, seeking to dry up one of the regime’s key sources of funding.Another wild card is how Saudi Arabia would respond if Iranian oil is restricted. Oil analysts say that while the Saudis may welcome recent oil price hikes, they don’t want a massive price spike that would fuel inflation, higher central bank interest rates and possible recession in oil-consuming countries that ultimately would limit or even kill off demand for oil. A third unknown is whether more oil will reach the market from Venezuela. The U.S. agreed Wednesday to temporarily suspend some sanctions on the country’s oil, gas and gold sectors after Venezuela’s government and a faction of its opposition formally agreed to work together on election reforms.Venezuelan production could increase in 2024. In the next six months, however, production could ramp up by some 200,000 barrels a day, a relative drop in the ocean, according to Sofia Guidi Di Sante, senior oil market analyst at Rystad Energy.Wyoming Sen. John Barrasso, the top Republican on the Senate Energy and Natural Resources Committee, slammed the U.S. action as a “gimmick” that appeases a brutal regime in Venezuela. “Joe Biden’s energy policies put America last,'' Barrasso said, citing the Democratic president's decisions to kill the controversial Keystone XL oil pipeline and sell off significant portions of the nation’s Strategic Petroleum Reserve, taking it to its lowest level since the 1980s. The Energy Department said Thursday it will seek offers to start refilling the oil reserve in December, with monthly solicitations expected through May 2024.“He eased sanctions on Iran, which funds terrorism across the Middle East. Now with Israel under attack, Biden is desperate for anything to mask the consequences of his reckless policies,'' Barrasso said. “America should never beg for oil from socialist dictators or terrorists.''The Treasury Department says it has targeted nearly 1,000 individuals and entities connected to terrorism and terrorist financing by the Iranian regime and its proxies, including Hamas, Hezbollah and other groups in the region. "We will continue to take action as appropriate to counter Iran’s destabilizing activity in the region and around the world,” Treasury said in a statement.____McHugh reported from Frankfurt, Germany. Choe reported from New York.。    山西太原小店区刘家堡乡王吴村的葡萄大棚里，紫黑色的“早黑宝”挂满藤架，果香四溢。王思宇 摄　　太原8月25日电 题：太原小店区：一颗葡萄串起农文旅融合链　　作者 王思宇 薛梓楠 高雨晴　　八月的山西太原，小店区刘家堡乡王吴村的葡萄大棚里，紫黑色的“早黑宝”挂满藤架，果香四溢。市民穿梭其间，剪下一串串葡萄，尝一口，玫瑰香浓郁，甜度不低。　　种植户王保卫种了十几年葡萄，他告诉记者，园子一直施农家肥，葡萄自然成熟，“回头客多，每年个把月，在地头就卖完了。

二 | 还有人提前打电话订货，靠的就是品质和口碑。”　　这种“足不出村”的销售场景，在王吴村已持续数年。这个过去以传统大田作物为主的村庄，如今靠着一颗早熟葡萄，调整了种植结构，也打开了农文旅融合的切口。　　“早黑宝”是山西省农科院培育的品种，特点是果粒大、肉质软，带有玫瑰香味，成熟期比普通葡萄早约一个月，恰好补上市场空档。

三 | 该品种已获得中国绿色食品发展中心的绿色食品A级认证，成为村里采摘农业的主打产品。　　然而，产业转型并非一帆风顺。王吴村村委委员吴金鑫坦言：“早期最怕天气不好，霜冻、冰雹对葡萄影响很大，直接打击村民信心。

四 | 刚开始大家心里都没底。

五 | ”后来，村集体组织农户参加技术培训，推行标准化管理，葡萄品质逐渐稳定，周边省份的游客也越来越多。　　这一发展思路，与近期小店区提出“做大做强都市现代农业、走特色化、精品化、规模化互促共兴之路”的目标高度契合。王吴村立足自身区位优势，将早黑宝葡萄种植与乡村休闲旅游深度嫁接，系统打造集农事体验、民俗文化于一体的乡村振兴示范样板，让顶层设计在基层有了具体落脚点。　　如今，葡萄每天都能稳定售出。吴金鑫说，“现在家门口就能卖上好价钱，文旅融合还增加了集体收入，也给村民提供了就近务工的机会。”　　除了采摘，王吴村把省级非遗代表性项目“小店牺汤”民俗文化与葡萄采摘节有机融合，连续多年举办“羊汤文化节暨葡萄采摘节”，游客喝羊汤、摘葡萄、赏田园，把传统民俗变成可体验的乡村旅游项目。

六 | 如今，该村已获评“山西省首批AAA级休闲旅游示范村”。

七 | 　　谈及下一步，吴金鑫表示，计划继续提升种植技术，推动规模化发展，并加入农耕研学体验，“让产业链更长，让乡村振兴的路子更宽”。　　从单一农业到多元融合，王吴村正在小店区的产业规划中，尝试走出一条特色化、精品化的乡村发展路径。

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